The successful forecasting of the Aurigids meteor shower and the problematic Quadrantid shower


Jeremie Vaubaillon, Caltech, Pasadena, CA
The forecasting of the meteor shower is a task that has been adressed since the XIXth century but has been performed with success since 1999 only. We will first review the reasons why computers only made this possible and illustrate it with the past Aurigids MAC mission. We will show that even with very few informations on a stream it is posible to perform very accurate forecastings (maximum predicted within 10 min. of the observed max.). This work is the basis and the condition to any MAC mission. Space agencies are also interested for the protection of artificial satellites and spacecrafts. We will describe the sucessful 2007 Aurigids and 2008 Quadrantids missions, as well as the future prospects for this discipline.